— Topic —
8 receipts tracked • 0% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ELON-M
OCT 01, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted full autonomy in about three years (by October 2018). By 2018 and through 2026, Tesla cars were not broadly regarded by regulators as fully autonomous (Level 4 or 5). The timeline was not met.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AOLEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #ELON-M
FEB 01, 2018
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“In February 2018 on a shareholder’s call, Musk promised a cross‑country fully autonomous ride within three to six months — a promise Musk originally made in 2016…”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted a cross-country fully autonomous ride within 3-6 months (by August 2018). No such demonstration occurred by that time or since. The prediction was not fulfilled.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
JalopnikRECEIPT #ELON-M
APR 01, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“By the middle of next year, we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with FSD hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted 'feature complete' FSD requiring no attention by mid-2020 and millions of robotaxis. By mid-2020 and through 2026, FSD still required driver attention, and a robotaxi network was not launched or legally recognized. The prediction was not realized.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Consumer ReportsRECEIPT #ELON-M
JAN 01, 2019
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“I think we will be feature‑complete full self‑driving this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention — this year… I would say that I am certain of that. That is not a question mark.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted 'feature-complete' FSD without intervention by end of 2019. By end of 2019 and through 2026, Tesla's FSD Beta required constant driver monitoring and was not feature-complete in the described sense. The prediction was not met.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Business InsiderRECEIPT #ELON-M
OCT 01, 2016
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“He claimed that a Tesla would be capable of traveling Los Angeles–New York by the end of 2017 “without the need for a single touch” of the steering wheel.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted a fully autonomous LA-NYC trip by end of 2017. No such trip occurred or was demonstrated by Tesla without human intervention by that date. The prediction was not realized.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CNN BusinessRECEIPT #ELON-M
JUN 01, 2016
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. We’re less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk stated technical complete autonomy was less than two years away (by mid-2018). By mid-2018 and through 2026, Tesla vehicles still required driver supervision and were not considered completely autonomous or approved for unsupervised operation. The timeline was not met.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Motley FoolRECEIPT #ELON-M
JAN 10, 2016
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk predicted cross-country Summon in ~2 years (by early 2018). By early 2018 and through 2026, Tesla's Summon could not autonomously drive vehicles thousands of miles cross-country. The prediction was not fulfilled.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Consumer ReportsRECEIPT #ELON-M
DEC 01, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Elon Musk“We're going to achieve complete autonomy… I believe we will have full autonomy in roughly two years.”
FOLLOW-UP
Musk stated full autonomy would be achieved in roughly two years (by late 2017). As of 2026, Tesla vehicles still require human drivers and are not legally or technically 'fully autonomous' (Level 4/5). The timeline was not met.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Wired